ValcoMD Market Conditions Update Baltimore / Washington DC Metros:
February 2026 Housing Market Update: The DC Metro median sales price keeps rising at 4.8% to $585,000, showings up 1.7% and pending sales increased 1.9%, all else was negative as closed sales dropped 10.3%, active inventory increased 18.0%, new listings fell 5.0%, months of supply continues to rise at 1.74, and days on market ballooned to 36.
The Baltimore Metro median sales price also rose 3.3% at $375,000, showings similarly grew 3.9%, and pending sales increased 3.3%, closed sales dropped 8.9%, active inventory popped 23.8%, new listings fell slightly 0.4%, months of supply jumped to 1.93, and days on market rose to 30.
Stats within Maryland varied from the Metros for Jan 2026 vs 2025 which saw $410,000 median SP$ modest gain 0.5%, pending sales grew from 4,396 to 4,750, active inventory fell from 13,474 to 11,700, new listings declined from 6,418 to 4,907, closed sales fell from 4,155 to 3,660, months of supply fell to 2.1, and day on market is up to 29.
The FHFA House Price Index (HPI) Q3 2025 top 100 Metro Areas had our DC Metro ranked #51 up 1.8% year over year, Baltimore Metro at #54 at +1.6%, and Montgomery/Frederick at #59 up 1.4%. Although there were pockets of increasing and decreasing counties and sub-markets, most of our appraisals reconciled to a stable market in Q4 2025. Nationally, the top 3 rising MSAs were Jersey City, NJ/White Plains, NY, #3, Buffalo, NY #2, and Allentown/Bethlehem, PA#1. The bottom 3 for declining markets were St. Petersburg/Clearwater, FL #98, Bradenton/Sarasota, FL #99, and Cape Coral/Ft Myers, FL #100. Historical research has shown that lowered rates can make homes less affordable. The #1 factor impacting affordability is not interest rates, but inventory / the number of homes available for sale. When rates fall, buyers (“the crowd”) enter the market motivated to buy based on a lower interest rate and hopefully payment. Simultaneously, a stable to lower supply does not offer enough homes to accommodate the increased demand. Simply, home prices then rise. In real estate, the economic forces of supply and demand fueled by the crowd psychology still have the most impact. “Portal wars” between brokerage firms for off market/non-MLS listings are growing. The consumer does not want to go to multiple real estate sites to find a home. This also creates “the data” for appraisers and housing and mortgage research challenging as there in no central repository for supporting transactional data. It will be just a matter of time (near term) before technology and the demand of the consumer for an easier home search and closing will create an open exchange (blockchain like enabled) for real estate and mortgage transactions as has happened and is happening in so many other sectors and professions. Lenders that have adopted AI and machine learning are reporting 30%+ decrease in operational costs and 50%+ decrease in fraud issues; however, there are other ethical and compliance issues and concerns that must be addressed. Locally, housing inventories and certain stats are inconsistent, however, days on market are growing rapidly. Most local markets have seen a significant drop in new listings. It will be interesting to see if there is a spike of sellers (“the crowd”) for the spring buying season. It is frustrating to see borrowers that have bought in the past three years that expect the market to give them 10+% in equity over that time. We also see current buyers escalating offers in neighborhoods or sub-markets where they don’t have to. Our micro analysis market conditions analysis reconciles at least four different value trend sources to support our micro conclusion. The local value-add professional must know their markets and share this with his or her client.
Source: Bright MLS and Associated State, Local RE Boards, fhfa.gov/data/hpi, HousingWire, Baytech Consulting, February 17, 2026
The GSEs announced that they will require appraisals to contain a Market Area analysis to support time adjustments and market conditions in Q1 2025. This does NOT have to be complex or time consuming, but that does not minimalize its importance. We have been providing similar information in every report since 2020 (see below). We are not statistical or analytics experts. However, one of the most important roles of the local appraiser is to provide data and comment on local market stats and trends. A robot can pull the data and provide the stats, but only the local pro can reconcile the data and guide the reader to see the issue(s). A doctor returning an x-ray or scan from a technician, and not providing an interpretation is worthless to the patient.