ValcoMD Market Conditions Update Baltimore / Washington DC Metros:
April 2025 Housing Market Update: The DC Metro median sales price rose again 4.2% to $625,000, and pending sales grew 3.2%, but all else was negative: active inventory exploded 46.8%, showings declined 8.1%, new listings spiked 19.2%, closed sales modestly fell 1.9%, months of supply continues to rise rapidly to 1.98, and days on market were an unbelievably low 8.
The Baltimore Metro median sales price somehow rose 2.7% (under the 3% stable benchmark) to $379,990, pending sales grew 1.20%, similarly, all else was negative as active inventory spiked 27.5%, showings down 3.7%, new listings jumped 10.6%, closed sales dropped 4.2%, months of supply continues to rise rapidly to 1.74, days on market was only 12.
Again, things were different within the state of Maryland for March 2025 vs 2024 where stats saw $420,000 median SP$ grow 3.7% and pending sales rise from 6,239 to 6,621, active inventory fell from 11,699 to 11,173 equating to 2.0 months of inventory vs 2.1, there were 7,274 new listings vs 7,897. The negatives were 4,823 closed units dropped 10.0% while days on market rose to 12 from 10. As previously stated, real estate trends are increasingly micro as supported by the above and Counties below.
I just returned from the ACTS appraisal conference in San Antonio, TX. Our profession is experiencing a major shift on three fronts (modernization/technology/AI, demographics/perspective/mindset, and macro forces/interest rates/government influence). These potential watershed events will make those who embrace change better and those who won't/can't adapt to just watch. I saw a similar morphing in the 1990s in real estate brokerage with the advent of the internet. I saw some practitioners, like myself, embrace the opportunity and accelerate transactions and revenues at an unbelievable pace while many did not participate, and never regained prior volumes. Mindset, education, and execution will be the traits of the successful. Some national real estate companies and platforms are beginning to "exclusively" list and not share properties. The consumer does not want to visit multiple mini-sites to view the larger inventory. I see a trusted national company offering a national listing and transaction platform that is consumer-friendly and cost-effective. The consumer will demand it; the questions are who and when? What a wild post-election/Q1 2025 here in the DMV. ValcoMD has been busy with Q1 2025 appraisals up over 26% over Q1 2024 while overall market sales and mortgage volumes were flat to down. A solid, not great, spring home buying season may be followed by a very cold and slow winter sales market. If a home does not sell by August/September, watch out below… Home builders are already offering huge incentives and price reductions to move new home inventory. Locals who bought thinking they could telecommute are frustrated having to commute 1-2 hours each way daily into the Metros. An increasing number don’t have a job at all as many government contractors are experiencing layoffs as well. Lower-priced communities further in distance are being hit the hardest. Some say defaults are increasing, but we have not seen a spike yet.
Source: Bright MLS and Associated State, Local Real Estate Boards, April 19, 2025
The GSEs announced that they will require appraisals to contain a Market Area analysis to support time adjustments and market conditions in Q1 2025. This does NOT have to be complex or time consuming, but that does not minimalize its importance. We have been providing similar information in every report since 2020. We are not statistical or analytics experts. However, one of the most important roles of the local appraiser is to provide data and comment on local market stats and trends. A robot can pull the data and provide the stats, but only the local pro can reconcile the data and guide the reader to see the issue(s). A doctor returning an x-ray or scan from a technician, and not providing an interpretation is worthless to the patient.