ValcoMD Market Conditions Update Baltimore / Washington DC Metros:
October 2026 Housing Market Update: The DC Metro median sales price slightly rose 1.6% to $610,000, while almost all other indicators were negative. Closed sales were down 8.4%, showings collapsed 16.9%, active listings exploded 20.1%, pending sales toppled 17.1%, new listings fell 0.3%, months of supply grew to 3.22, and days on market still fast at 22.
The Baltimore Metro showed similar results with median sales price flat at $400,000, closed sales fell 7.6%, showings down 12.5%, active inventory ballooned 21.2%, pending sales sunk 14.9%, new listings dropped 1.5%, months of supply bounced to 3.05, and days on market at a low 19.
Stats within Maryland were similar for September 2026 vs 2025 which saw $432,000 median SP$ rise only 0.5%, pending sales fell from 6,114 to 5,106, active inventory up from 15,454 to 18,748, new listings slightly grew from 6,909 to 6,961, closed sales dropped from 5,605 to 5,169, months of supply popped from 2.8 to 3.5, and days on market a quick 20.
Where did all the transactions go? We acknowledge this may be a seriously slow winter season. With rates up, demand down, supply uncertain, and the UAD 3.6 transition all point to sizable drop in both purchase and refinance volume. Although our real estate market has defied past historical norms and trends, these current factors may be too significant to overcome for the typically slow winter season. For the spring season that just ended, local market conditions supported a stable trend with a few small pockets of increasing prices with growing declining micro markets. Given the macro influences (interest rates, affordability, gas prices, and significant volume of negative media news) we appear to be heading for a rising number of declining micro markets. Based on new listings, sellers do not appear to be motivated to sell, at least for now. ValcoMD Sep 2026 volume was down 27% from Jul 2026 and down 29% from Sep 2025. This is not our first down month and is no real concern. Similarly, the Mortgage Bankers Assn reported a 56% mortgage application decline from Sep 2025 to Sep 2026 with a 7.5% rate for a 30 year fixed up from 6.5% a year ago. The National Assn of Realtors reported total number of existing home sales down 2.2% over the past year but slid 16% from Sep 2022 with 4.8 months of national housing supply. Through the National UAD portal Freddie Mac reported that in Oct 2026 approximately 55% of appraisers submitted 1-9 appraisals, 27% @ 10-19, 10% @ 20-29 and 8% @ 30+ for the estimated 30,000 unique licenses submitting for the month. In Maryland the average was 13 in Oct 2026 and 12 in Oct 2025. In our August update we stated that we completed five 3.6 appraisals. To date we have completed 19. Thanks again to our clients who have trusted us to complete these for them. The mortgage community is still far from broad adoption of 3.6 as it represents a small but rapidly growing percentage of local and national appraisal volume. We just completed an Appraisal Buzzcast Podcast where we shared our efforts and results for our 3.6 journey with Hal and Jim: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WyR9Z_lIHOM While on YouTube, you can visit our updated Market Conditions and Time Adjustments overview for 3.6 that we finished last month (hope it helps 3.6ers): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oZC4CPgS9Fo In September I received a GSE AQM letter. Appraisal professionals particularly fear these letters. I was awestruck to read that it was a thank you letter for my efforts and work on the 3.6 initiative. Kudos and thanks to the AQM teams!
Source: Bright MLS and Associated State, Local RE Boards, Appraisal Buzz, MBA.org, Natl Assn of Realtors, Freddie Mac October 21, 2026.
The GSEs announced that they require appraisals to contain a Market Area analysis to support time adjustments and market conditions in Q1 2025. This has been updated in 2026 with UAD 3.6. This does NOT have to be complex or time consuming, but that does not minimalize its importance. We have been providing similar information in every report since 2020 (see below). We are not statistical or analytics experts. However, one of the most important roles of the local appraiser is to provide data and comment on local market stats and trends. A robot can pull the data and provide the stats, but only the local pro can reconcile the data and guide the reader to see the issue(s). A doctor returning an x-ray or scan from a technician, and not providing an interpretation is worthless to the patient.