ValcoMD Market Conditions Update Baltimore / Washington DC Metros:
August 2025 Housing Market Update: The DC Metro median sales price rose again 2.4% to $640,000, but all else was negative except for showings which rose 7.3%. Active inventory spiked 40.1%, new listings declined 1.3%, closed sales modestly fell 2.5%, pending sales were down 3.4%, months of supply continues to rise rapidly to 2.48, and days on market almost doubled to a still low 15.
Similarly, the Baltimore Metro median sales price somehow rose 4.2% to $420,000 with showings up 1.8%. Active inventory ballooned 25.7%, new listings dropped 7.5%, closed sales were down 5.0%, pending sales declined 4.7%, months of supply jumped to 2.27, and days on market rose to 11.
Within the state of Maryland for July 2025 vs 2024 where stats saw $445,000 median SP$ grow 2.8% while all else was mostly negative. Active inventory slightly rose from 14,425 to 14,501, new listings declined from 8,418 to 6,869, closed sales fell from 6,736 to 6,086, pending sales dropped 6,394 to 6,256, months of supply were stable at 2.6, and day on market rose from 8 to 13.
Locally, prices are increasing but at a slower rate with both our major Metros with a jump in active listings and months of supply (predictive metrics) amid the prime home-buying season but some of the local Counties show some cracks. Based on this trend, we could be seeing declining prices into Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 depending on demand. Somehow the median sales price for the Bright Mid-Atlantic region set a record high in June 2025. I just returned from the Val Expo Conference, and my initial observations are 1. the possible significant loss of appraisers due to UAD 3.6 (we are ready) without a replacement inventory of new skilled appraisers and trainees (a drop in rates and an increase in appraisal volume could be a future concern); 2. growing number of non MLS sales that could impact the quality and detail of comparable sales data; 3. climate and environmental trends that can directly and indirectly impact real estate monthly costs, marketability, and values; 4. conclusions made solely on data without insights on the market or the client/customer can lead to poor decisions; 5. a lack of qualified and willing mentors to teach new appraisers the importance of non-technical skills such as comp selection, consistency, discretion, judgment, report writing, and client skills. PwC (national accounting firm) is re-training their entry level staff (as they see AI performing many of their current tasks) to do more critical thinking, managing, reviewing, client relations, and other senior manager “soft skills” (see #5 above). The successful appraiser will be the one who can develop and report a credible appraisal using technology but also has these other essential “soft skills” to maintain and grow an active appraisal business. Commercial markets are experiencing growing delinquencies led by the office, multifamily, and mixed-use sectors. We have seen an increase in our residential default appraisals, but far below alarming. Although FHA loans have a significantly higher default rate; the FHA has been more proactive in selling nonperforming loans through the CWCOT and other loss mitigation programs but still has disposition issues within the portfolio
Source: : Bright MLS and Associated State, Local RE Boards, Appraisal Institute, ValExpo, MBA.org, Business Insider, ResiClub August 22, 2025
The GSEs announced that they will require appraisals to contain a Market Area analysis to support time adjustments and market conditions in Q1 2025. This does NOT have to be complex or time consuming, but that does not minimalize its importance. We have been providing similar information in every report since 2020 (see below). We are not statistical or analytics experts. However, one of the most important roles of the local appraiser is to provide data and comment on local market stats and trends. A robot can pull the data and provide the stats, but only the local pro can reconcile the data and guide the reader to see the issue(s). A doctor returning an x-ray or scan from a technician, and not providing an interpretation is worthless to the patient.