ValcoMD Market Conditions Update Baltimore / Washington DC Metros:
August 2026 Housing Market Update: The DC Metro median sales price marginally rose 1.6% to $650,000, while almost all other indicators were negative. Closed sales were flat 0.0%, showings fell 4.7%, active listings were up 11.2%, pending sales dropped 4.2%, new listings grew 3.3%, months of supply grew to 2.75, and days on market still fast at 15.
The Baltimore Metro showed similar results with median sales price up 4.2% at $437,750, closed sales rose 5.8%, showings down 4.4%, active inventory grew significantly at 20.0%, pending sales down 3.1%, new listings up 0.7%, months of supply increased to 2.74, and days on market at a low 11.
Stats within Maryland were stronger than the Metros for July 2026 vs 2025 which saw $455,000 median SP$ increase 2.2%, pending sales grew from 5,911 to 6,218, active inventory fell from 19,379 to 16,881, new listings declined from 8,648 to 7,045, closed sales were flat from 6,337 to 6,328, months of supply fell to 3.0, and days on market a quick 13.
ATTOM recently released its Q2 2026 U.S. Home Equity and Underwater Report. 41.1% of mortgaged homes in the U.S. are equity-rich (50%+ equity), down from 47.4% a year ago with four straight quarters of decline and the lowest point in almost five years. Conversely, 3.2% of properties are seriously underwater (debt exceeds value by 25%+) up from 2.7% a year ago. The top 3 states seriously underwater were MN-12.1%, LA-10.3% and IA-7.8% and the bottom three were CT-1.1%, MA-1.3% and NY-1.5%. FHFA Top 100 Metros Q2 2026 price change saw the top 3 Metros as Elgin, IL+7.7%, Allentown, PA+7.0% and Stamford, CT+6.6% and the bottom 3 were Everett, WA-3.7%, San Antonio, TX-3.0% and Bakersfield, CA -2.6%. Locally Baltimore #46 was up 2.1%, Mont Co/Frederick #70 up 0.4% and Wash, DC #92 down 1.0%. FHFA UAD stats yielded some interesting local (Frederick County) purchase appraisal facts for 2023 vs 2013: the median appraised value was $485,000 vs $320,000 (up 52%), there were 2,635 appraisals vs 2,031 (up 30%), % of appraisals below the contract SP% was 11.76% vs 5.71% (up 88%), mean distance for comps used was 1.04 miles vs. 1.27 mile (down 18%), mean comps adjustment % was 30.0% vs 2.5% (up 1,100%). In 2023 Montgomery Co./Frederick MSA 918 appraisals used 3 or less comparables vs 344 in 2013, 983 used 7 or more, vs 728, the most common saw 2,199 use 5 vs 3,471 using 5 in 2013. Our average is 6.2 comps per appraisal. As we covered in our October 2025 update, fraud and defaults in DSCR (debt service coverage ratio) investor loans (a securitization favorite) are surging. This month we completed our 5th UAD 3.6 appraisal. Our feedback from Val Expo in Las Vegas this month was that approximately half of appraisers attending have not taken the introductory UAD class and approximately 15-20% have completed at least one 3.6 appraisal so far. Considering the upcoming deadline, this is alarming. Software has significantly improved since the ACTS conference in Seattle; however, consensus was no one company has established itself as best in class yet. Val Expo was an outstanding learning and networking opportunity and their best conference yet with 800+ attendees with a healthy mix of appraisers, lenders, AMCs, technology, and other providers. The above Metro statistics should lead one to question as to how long prices can increase in the Metros when most of the fundamentals are underperforming supported by a surge of active inventory, lower showings, and buyer uncertainty (all telltale signs). Outside of the Metros and most of our markets support stable to strong trends. Know your micro markets!
Source: Bright MLS and Associated State, Local RE Boards, ATTOM, Realtor.com, valexpo.com, Instl Risk Analyst, FHFA.gov August 29, 2026
The GSEs announced that they require appraisals to contain a Market Area analysis to support time adjustments and market conditions in Q1 2025. This has been updated in 2026 with UAD 3.6. This does NOT have to be complex or time consuming, but that does not minimalize its importance. We have been providing similar information in every report since 2020 (see below). We are not statistical or analytics experts. However, one of the most important roles of the local appraiser is to provide data and comment on local market stats and trends. A robot can pull the data and provide the stats, but only the local pro can reconcile the data and guide the reader to see the issue(s). A doctor returning an x-ray or scan from a technician, and not providing an interpretation is worthless to the patient.